Analytics Firm Pulls Back on Drug Revenue Projections

Patent expirations, biosimilars and uncertainty around the Trump administration’s drug policies will create a pricing squeeze in the drug industry, according to a new analysis.

Global drug sales will hit $1.06 trillion by 2022, according to EvaluatePharma’s 10th World Preview analysis. While this represents a 6.5 percent increase, it’s a drop from the $1.12 trillion the firm predicted for the same period in last year’s report. The projections represent the first time in the report’s history it has lowered its predictions from the previous year.

While worldwide drug sales are projected to increase 6.5 percent by 2022, with 95 percent of the increase coming from orphan drugs, the report found $194 billion in sales are at risk — due to expiring patents and the increasing prevalence of biosimilars. The analysis projects a 54-percent erosion in sales for top biologics due to biosimilar competition.